By Thomas Black and Jens Erik Gould
Mexico’s share of the $427.7 billion in goods and services the U.S. imported in the first three months of the year rose to a record 12.3 percent from 11 percent a year ago, helped by a weaker peso and U.S. companies moving manufacturing south of the border. China’s share fell to 17 percent from 18.4 percent.
To combat China’s low-cost manufacturing industry, Mexican factories have shifted to goods that are expensive to ship overseas and those that require more complex manufacturing, such as automobiles and appliances, said Luis de la Calle, a former Mexican negotiator for the North American Free Trade Agreement. Mexico adopted the strategy after China’s entry into the World Trade Organization in 2001 caused the closure of hundreds of textile, toy and electronics plants.
“There’s a change in perception in favor of Mexico,” said De la Calle, who is now a partner at Mexico City-based business adviser De la Calle Madrazo Mancera SA. “There’s a realignment that started before the crisis and the crisis sped it up.”
The increase in Mexico’s share of the U.S. market will continue because of its proximity and supply of workers willing to be paid less than their counterparts in Canada, De la Calle said. Mexico may have as much as 15 percent of the U.S. market within three years and displace Canada as the country’s second- biggest source of foreign goods, he said.
“We don’t pay much attention to short-term changes in market share data,” Chen Rongkai, head of the press department at China’s Ministry of Commerce, said by phone. “We welcome competition in an open and fair environment.”
Polaris Industries Inc., the Medina, Minnesota-based maker of snowmobiles and all-terrain vehicles, said May 20 they are opening a production facility near Monterrey to replace one they plan to sell or close in Osceola, Wisconsin. The move, along with adding production to two other U.S. facilities, will save $30 million annually by 2012, the company said.
“With speed-to-market and logistics costs, China just wouldn’t have been competitive,” Chief Executive Officer Scott Wine said in a May 24 telephone interview from Medina. “Mexico has got a workforce that’s used to working for U.S. multinational companies, with fairly high-technology products.”
Mexico’s exports reached $291.3 billion in 2008 before falling 21 percent last year as its northern neighbor struggled with the worst recession since the Great Depression. In the first four months of this year, Mexico’s exports to the U.S. climbed 35 percent to $91.3 billion.
Mexico reported yesterday a preliminary trade surplus of $195 million in April, beating a forecast for a $15 million deficit, according to the median estimate of 13 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.
Some economists, including Alonso Cervera of Credit Suisse Group AG, say the gains won’t last because they’re based on higher oil prices and a one-time rebound in auto exports. Mexico is the second-largest supplier of crude oil to the U.S.
“The rate of growth going forward should ease substantially,” Cervera said in a phone interview from Mexico City. “Exports out of Mexico will continue to look very strong on a year-over-year basis, but in sequential terms we’ve seen the best numbers already.”
Mexico’s oil exports rose 77 percent to $11 billion in the first four months of the year. Export volume rose 4 percent to and the average price for Mexican crude exports climbed 70 percent to $70.53 per barrel over the same period. Oil accounts for about 14 percent of Mexico’s exports.
Auto exports jumped 79 percent in the first four months of 2010 to 564,388 vehicles, after plunging 41 percent in 2009.
Exporters have also benefitted from a weaker peso, which makes Mexican goods cheaper in dollar terms. The currency declined to as much as 15.57 pesos per dollar in March last year from as strong as 9.86 pesos in August 2008, a 37 percent drop. The peso has recovered since last year, to 13.0753 as of 3:06 p.m. New York time. Inflation has remained tame, with consumer prices rising 4.27 percent in April from a year earlier.
An influx of foreign investment in factories and equipment before the U.S. recession that began in 2008 showed the confidence companies have in Mexico, said Beatriz Leycegui, a deputy economy minister, in an interview. Investments will return as U.S. demand for manufactured goods rebounds, she said.
Foreign direct investment reached a record $27.3 billion in 2007 and $23.2 billion in 2008 before plummeting to $11.4 billion last year. Economy Minister Gerardo Ruiz Mateos last month said Mexico will receive $20 billion in foreign investment in 2010.
Among those boosting production is Chrysler, which plans to invest $550 million at its assembly plant in Toluca to begin producing the Fiat 500 model in December, retooling a plant that produced the PT Cruiser. Mexico won the production over Michigan, which was also being considered, De la Calle said.
Whirlpool in August 2009 announced it would shift production of refrigerators from an Evansville, Indiana, factory to Mexico, eliminating 1,100 full-time U.S. jobs. With heavy or bulky items, shipping costs often outweigh the labor savings when manufacturing from China, Marc Bitzer, president of North American operations for Whirlpool, said on a May 11 conference call with analysts.
Mexico has gained favor as manufacturers see more risks in China because of rising costs to do business and the possible appreciation of the Chinese currency, said De la Calle, who has a framed copy in his office of the Nafta agreement signed by President Bill Clinton.
U.S. and European officials are pressuring China to let its currency appreciate to boost their export competitiveness. Chinese President Hu Jintao, who is hosting U.S. officials in Beijing this week, said yesterday China will move gradually and independently in altering exchange-rate policy after keeping the yuan pegged to the U.S. dollar for 22 months. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner, who has delayed a report to the U.S. Congress that could brand China a currency manipulator, said he welcomed China’s commitment to yuan changes.
The average annual salary for Chinese manufacturing workers was 24,192 yuan ($3,543) in 2008, a 16 percent increase from 2007, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Mexico’s average manufacturing salaries rose 5.2 percent to 239.8 pesos a day last year from 227.78 pesos in 2008, according to Mexico’s Labor Ministry. Factoring in a work week of five days, the Mexican wage in 2009 would be 62,348 pesos ($4,823).
“Company boards are asking, ‘In what country can we diversify away from our Chinese risk?’” De la Calle said. “Mexico is your best option.”
Last Updated: May 25, 2010 15:07 EDT
by COHA Research Associate Nancy Cruz
Current Oil Situation
Oil is at the heart of the Mexican economy. Profits on its extraction are the country’s number one revenue, accounting for approximately 40 percent of Mexico’s total revenues. Due to the decline in the price of oil that began last year with the escalation of the global recession, Mexico’s oil-dependent economy has suffered grievously. Prior to the sag in oil prices, when other oil producing countries were taking advantage of the tremendous peak in prices, Mexico was hit particularly hard; government officials reported that last year’s drop in oil production cost the Mexican government an estimated US$20 billion in lost revenues. This year’s plunge in oil prices has resulted in oil export revenues being recorded at only $1.25 billion per month for the first seven months of 2009, a fall from an average of $1.44 billion per month in 2008. The falling prices and production rate continue to damage the economy, and many blame the Mexican government for its failure to channel new investments in to various oil-producing fields, along with its mismanagement of revenues. Mexico feels the pressure to convert its oil profits into public spending in order to generate immediate results and to keep a lid on the country’s mounting social tensions; instead it sometimes foolishly refuses to put aside some of the profits to ensure financial stability.
Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex), Mexico’s state owned petroleum company, and one of the ten largest oil companies in the world, is an indispensable contributor to the country’s public sector earnings. Despite being one of the world’s largest crude oil producers and exporters, Mexico still must import 40 percent of its refined petroleum products. In fact, the International Energy Outlook predicts that by 2020 Mexico is going to be a net importer of petroleum products, reaching 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) by 2030. Mexico is forced to import such a large percentage of refined petroleum products because it currently lacks the technologies to refine them itself, creating another issue for Mexico’s already crushing economic tribulations. Even though state-owned Pemex is the country’s main source of revenue, contributing $98 billion to Mexico’s economy in 2008, the company still reported a loss of $8.7 billion last year after it paid the national treasury $57 billion in taxes and royalties. The government is so dependent on Pemex that it forces the company to pay exorbitant taxes, pushing it further into debt so that the government can barely discharge its economic obligations.
In addition to lost revenue as a result of declining prices and production, Pemex has also suffered losses due to the megalithic levels of corruption on the part of Pemex executives which is also related to the operation of the pipelines. Corruption is not a new occurrence at Pemex, and has in fact been occurring for decades. In 2007, Raúl Muñoz, a former Pemex executive, was fined $80 million and banned from holding a public office for ten years for the misappropriation of $170 million in company funds, some of which was used to pay for not one, but two liposuction operations for his wife. It is not just the top executives at Pemex who are involved in corruption scandals within the company: in 2000, Pemex dollars were inappropriately used by the petroleum workers union, Sindicato de Trabajadores Petroleros de la República Mexicana (STPRM), to help fund the campaign of presidential hopeful Francisco Labastida of the Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI).
Pipeline corruption is rampant in Mexico and costs Pemex an estimated $2 billion in lost revenue each year. Tapping pipelines to steal gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel occurs in most, if not all, of Mexico’s 31 states. Pemex found nearly 400 illegal connections to pipelines last year, estimated to have cost the company roughly $720 million. According to the Mexican government, gangs use siphoned fuel to power their aircrafts involved in drug smuggling. In fact, in 2004, former Mexican president Vicente Fox launched an investigation to curtail widespread oil theft. However the investigation was unsuccessful because the practice continues to be a growing issue for Mexico’s oil industry. Thieves are now stealing crude oil, which they must smuggle out of the country and have refined elsewhere in order for it to have value. In May, U.S. oil trader and former president of Trammo Corporation Donald Schroeder pleaded guilty to purchasing stolen Mexican condensate, a raw hydrocarbonate similar to crude oil used to make plastic, as well as coordinating its shipment to Texas via barge. Additionally, in August another company was discovered purchasing oil which had been illegally taken from Pemex: a Texas chemical plant owned by German based BASF Corporation. The chemical plant was found to be purchasing $2 million worth of petroleum products smuggled into the U.S.; the company denies having any knowledge of the illegitimacy of the oil, and court documents yielded no evidence of their awareness. Georgina Kessel Martinez, Mexican Secretary of Energy, believes it will take some time before oil theft is no longer practiced in the country, stating, “This is a process that is going to take some time because PEMEX not only needs to install new technology but also needs to conduct an extensive analysis of its system of ducts and create better tools to combat fuel theft.” She acknowledges that fuel thieves have far more advanced technology and techniques than Pemex, and stated that Pemex plans to spend $76 billion between now and 2012 to create a system in order to better monitor the oil ducts.
Although Pemex claims to be making progress in putting an end to the practice, oil theft is ongoing, due in large part to the participation of numerous as well as strategically situated Pemex employees in theft rings. In July, federal officials from the Procuraduria General de la Republica (PGR) and other government agencies seized documents from the security department at Pemex headquarters that implicated various Pemex employees in a scandal involving millions of dollars in oil siphoned from various pipelines. Authorities have yet to arrest anyone in the case. According to La Jornada, a Mexico City daily, the PGR is investigating nine customs inspectors, 20 Pemex employees, and 100 business owners believed to be involved in an elaborate conspiracy. The STPRM workers’ union is believed to be linked to the scheme as well. “The problem…of corruption in PEMEX…is so huge that this case requires a thorough investigation by the Senate,” said Sen. Ricardo Monreal, a member of the center-left Partido del Trabajo (PT). Pemex needs to resolve its internal inconsistencies if it ever wants to make headway in restoring lost revenues.
Where does the oil come from?
The largest source of oil and most crucial source of income for Pemex is the offshore oilfield, Cantarell. The problem now facing Pemex and the Mexican economy is that oil production at Cantarell has fallen at a rate averaging about 25 percent since its peak in 2004. This year alone, production at Cantarell has declined by nearly 35 percent to just 737,400 barrels per day, 11 percent below the minimum figure anticipated in the company’s budget. Even President Felipe Calderón has acknowledged that Pemex’s oil production has fallen between 2008 and 2009 by about 215,000 barrels per day. With production decreasing significantly, the only way that Mexico can sustain revenue levels is by having the price of oil remain above $70 a barrel. At one point in the year however, the price for crude oil fell to nearly $30 a barrel, far from the figure that Mexico needs for obtaining the required profit increase. Even if oil prices were to spike today, Mexico would still not benefit for quite some time, as oil production is not expected to pick up for the remainder of the year. Some, such as Pemex Director General of Exploration and Production Carlos Morales, claim that Cantarell’s production will stabilize when it reaches 400,000 barrels per day; others predict that this vital oilfield will only be productive for another nine years.
Yet despite the plunge in oil production, Mexico continues to depend on Cantarell to supply the country with the majority of its oil. Engineers at Pemex have long known that production at the reserve would begin to dwindle; however, government officials did not take these warnings to heart until the predicted problem became a national crisis. The Mexican government has relied too heavily on an oilfield that is expected to run out shortly and failed to invest in oilfields outside of Cantarell. Recently, efforts have been underway to increase production at various other oilfields, namely Ku Maloob Zaap (KMZ), to offset the loss from Cantarell, but the decline at Cantarell far exceeds the increase in output from new, less promising oilfields. KMZ accounts for 63 percent of the total increase in production from other oilfields, producing 183,000 barrels per day in the first seven months of 2009. However, the amount of money that would come from such a quantity of oil does not seem to be enough to make up for this year’s loss alone of an estimated $5.1 billion drop in revenue.
There is no denying that a key solution in solving Mexico’s oil problem both now and in the long term is investing in oilfields outside of Cantarell. When the massive off-shore oilfield was discovered in the 1970s, it may have been reasonable to overlook the threat of it running dry, rather than properly maintaining the invaluable facility, but as time goes on it becomes increasingly crucial for Mexico to take steps to find alternative sources outside of Cantarell. New oil discoveries by the U.S. undeniably prove that there are still valuable oil deposits in the region. On September 2, BP announced they had made one of the largest oil discoveries in U.S. drilling history, when it drilled the world’s largest exploration well in the Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Houston. The well is estimated to hold more than 3 billion barrels of oil. Although drilling the well remains several years down the road, the discovery highlights the minimal effort Mexico has put into exploration and development of new oilfields.
According to analysts, at this point, it would be a wise long-term strategy for Mexico to heavily invest in oil deposits in the Gulf of Mexico. The country is believed to hold roughly 30 billion barrels of oil in deep waters; accounting for nearly half of Mexico’s potential oil deposits. Such a large amount of oil would be the equivalent of supplying the U.S. with oil for four years. President Felipe Calderón himself has said, “It’s likely we have similar [oil] wealth, but we don’t have, whether you like to admit it, the technology or the organizational and operational capacity to do it by ourselves.” Pemex cites the lack of technology required to operate in deepwater drilling as the reason for its lack of involvement in new discoveries; at the same time, the country has failed to invest in those technologies that would bring the augmented profits so badly needed to boost the economy.
However, as a result of Mexico’s current economic situation, amassing funds for future oilfield exploration is nearly an unattainable political feat. Given the technology and equipment necessary to begin drilling in the Gulf of Mexico, it would be nearly a decade until the country would be able to reap the rewards of such ventures. By that time, the problem of declining oil revenues will be much worse. Unfortunately for Mexico, Pemex put off necessary exploration for too long, frivolously spent funds elsewhere, and is now suffering from its thoughtless negligence.
Mexico’s Energy Secretary Georgina Kessel Martinez has said that the country needs to look into alternatives, and she believes that Mexico “can do much more progressive stuff.” In particular, she believes that Mexico should look at Brazil and its national oil company, Petrobras, as a model for potential changes to the Mexican oil sector. Brazil allows Petrobras to collaborate with foreign companies for domestic and international exploration, as well as to lease concessions to operate oil blocks in national waters.
Last October, steps were taken to have Pemex open itself up to business agreements with private companies. In an effort to grant Pemex greater independence, Congress approved seven issues of an energy reform bill proposed by the Federal Government. The reform was designed to allow Pemex to recruit international oil contractors as limited associates in new explorations and production endeavors. Although this reform has significant potential, Mexico’s constitution prohibits joint ventures where partners would be sharing in oil production schedules or profits. Pemex will need to propose a creative scheme if it wants to find private oil companies willing to partner up with it, which could be difficult given the existing restrictions. Perhaps even greater revisions to the constitution will be needed in order to improve incentives for public and private partnerships.
Response to Issue
President Calderón recently stated that Mexico “must take profound [reforms] and move quickly.” Pemex appears to have responded with all due seriousness to President Calderón’s recent statement; the company is in the process of redirecting its strategy. On September 7, in a move that many companies make when their numbers look bleak, the company announced the dismissal of Chief Executive Officer and former PRI minister Jesus Reyes Heroles; his appointed replacement is Juan José Suárez Coppel. Suárez Coppel is expected to take drastic steps to curb Pemex’s losses, and as President Calderón declared, “transform Pemex profoundly, to its roots.” Having served as the Chief Financial Officer for the oil company from 2001 to 2006, Suárez Coppel is no novice to Pemex’s financial issues and knows the company’s facts and figures quite well.
Regardless of the fact that this experience might give him a bit of an edge when trying to turn around the company’s losses, there is no guarantee that Suárez Coppel will be able to make more profound changes than the previous CEO. Suárez Coppel is bound to face challenges in his attempt to turn Pemex’s fortune around, the primary reason being that the state corporation does not in fact operate autonomously: its budget and spending schedule are not determined by the company’s governing directive, but rather by Congress and the finance and energy ministries. Suárez Coppel also has no say when it comes to the appointment of chiefs of exploration and refining for Pemex, a decision made by President Calderón. Perhaps, the decision to change the executives of Pemex could be explained by the president’s desire for the company to attract private investments and participate in profit sharing. The company’s future is less certain now that the PRI, which is in favor of keeping Pemex an exclusively national entity, controls Congress. The PRI is likely to fight many of the proposed changes made by President Calderón and it will be Calderón who will be losing the battles, especially when it comes to changes in the nation’s oil industry.
What other solutions has the Mexican government come up with to remedy the problem?
One solution that the Mexican government has placed on the table is the construction of a new oil refinery. In August, Pemex announced the location of the future refinery, named Bicentario to honor Mexico’s 200th anniversary of its independence, a year after President Calderón promised a new refinery and after months of a slow and bitter struggle among the political parties to decide the location for its construction. Bicentario, the first new refinery in Mexico in 30 years, is set to cost an estimated $9 billion and is scheduled to open in 2015. It is designed to produce 300,000 barrels of petroleum per day. Currently, Pemex imports 340,000 barrels per day of petroleum products; a new refinery would allow Mexico to reduce the amount of petroleum imported since it would now have somewhere to refine its surplus crude oil. President Calderón announced that the city of Tula, located in the state of Hidalgo was his choice of location for the new refinery. His choice to build the refinery in Tula instead of in Guanajuato came as a shock to many, as Hidalgo is controlled by the opposition PRI party, while Guanajuato is controlled by Calderón’s own Partido Acción Nacional (PAN). Although Guanajuato was not chosen as the location for the new refinery, in consolation the Salamanca refinery in Guanajuato would be expanded and receive a $3 billion upgrade.
Although the decision to locate the new refinery in Hidalgo seems like a minor issue, it foreshadows the fact that the PRI is once again beginning to project a greater influence. The PRI can now be counted on to make it difficult for President Calderón to enact far-reaching legislative changes, especially over the issue of oil. This expansion project is necessary for Mexico’s oil industry, but it also raises the question: where is Pemex going to find the funds necessary for such an expensive project when it lost major amounts of revenues in 2008 and 2009, and does not appear to be able to make up for them? Pemex is billions of dollars in debt, but if it ever wants to see an increase in revenue, it is vital for it to invest funds on projects that promise to bring enhanced earnings for both Pemex and the country in the future.
Pemex announced on September 7 that the oil company had awarded the French-owned geo-physics surveying company, CGG Veritas Services de Mexico, one of the largest private survey contracts in Mexican history. Pemex has a contract with the company that will remain in effect from October 2009 until 2013. It reportedly paid CGG Veritas $465 million for the acquisition and processing of three-dimensional seismic data of Mexican offshore oilfields. However, preliminary exploration and drilling is at least 3 to 4 years away. The BP discovery of a large new oil deposit in the Gulf of Mexico was cause for concern to Mexican officials that a “drinking straw” effect might occur, where oil extractions on the U.S. side of the boundary line could tap into the reserves that lie under both countries.
What does this mean for Mexico?
Declining oil production makes it increasingly obvious that Mexico must find another primary revenue source and move away from its dependence on oil. If the country continues to rely primarily on oil, the only thing that it will see in the future is plummeting revenues. Pemex undoubtedly must develop oilfields outside of Cantarell and it has shown that it is making a responsible attempt at this by updating one oilfield and constructing another. This effort will more than likely not be enough to raise sufficient revenue in the near future, but hopefully will help to stabilize the national oil company in the long run. As for now, the government will have to wait and see what happens with the Bicentario refinery, both in terms of production increases and political consequences. Will the decision to put the new refinery in a PRI-controlled state have as large an impact on oil issues as anticipated?
President Calderón and the PRI-controlled Congress need to work together to amend Mexican constitutional provisions that would allow Pemex to join with outside companies to help with the development and production of its oil and resources. Until this happens, Mexico will have a hard time catching up with the rest of the world’s oil production. There will more than likely be a challenge on this front: it was PRI which originally nationalized Pemex and is sure to fight any attempts to change existing laws that keeps Pemex from working with outside companies. If the PRI and President Calderón can come up with new initiatives that work for both parties, Pemex will be in a better position to make the necessary modifications that will help both the company and the Mexican economy.